Don’t Panic Yet About Ebola

by bitznbitez

liberia

Liberia has 3.9 million people.  Its October 4, 2014 and so far this year there have been 3,834 cases of Ebola in Liberia and 2,069 deaths.   That’s a death rate of 53%.  So if you catch the illness heads you win tails you loose.  Your chances in the last year of contracting ebola in Liberia are 0.10 %, or 1 chance in 1000, and your chance of dying from it would be about about 1 in 2000.

The impression we are getting via the western press of Liberia is that its not a medically advanced country.    One expects with better healthcare in the US that we will reduce the death rate of those infected at least a little bit.   How much more remains to be seen.

As virus go who can say.  We still cannot cure the common cold.  But on the other hand an African doctor is claiming he reduced mortality from Ebola in infected patients to 13% when he began using HIV drugs in patients out of sheer desperation.   ZMapp is in testing, and has been given to humans.  There are other potential drugs in the wings.

I remain confident we will be able to engineer our way around this and its not yet time to panic.

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