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Who among us doesn’t need a drinking horn ?

Three horns of mead doesn’t help a low carb diet but fat and drunk or skinny and sober you pick. I mean renaissance fairs are annual pilgrimages.

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2018 Election Conclusions

Trump will not win reelection in 2020. The crossover voters didn’t return in the house races. Unless the Democratic Party nominates an astonishingly bad candidate Trump will be a one term president.

Florida will become a blue state. The election shows the GOP winning by narrow margins. The number of former felons having their voting rights restored will tip the state blue for several elections to come.

Atkins : Week 6.5 Results : -18 lbs : Yay!

Atkins20_20181030_Week6

Six and a half weeks in, trying to follow induction rules all the time, I have lost 18 lbs.  I’ve dropped from 217 to 199 lbs.

My most recent plateau was broken through when I went on the road.  I went on a road trip.  My usual method is to have a bag of chips and dip and Mt. Dew.  I’m hardcore and only stop for fuel.  On an 800 mile trip I usually stop twice.

To make my eating on the road Atkins I took a bag of bacon, some mayo/garlic/dill/onion dip, and some sliced bell peppers.  The Mt. Dew I turned to Diet Dew.   It worked well.   During the week I was doing my own cooking but since I didn’t have the same scale handy I did not weigh in.  The long straight line is the connection between two weigh in’s about 8 days apart.

The graph’s linear trend line continues to be stable.  It looks like I’ll be done mid march at this rate.  My goal still remains mid April 2019.

Atkins : Week 4 Results : -13.2 lbs : Yay!

Atkins20_20181014_Week4

One month in, trying to follow induction rules all the time, I have lost 13.2 lbs.  I’ve dropped from 217 to 203.8 lbs.

As you can see a plateau was hit pretty early on but I broke through.  I may have been getting carbs in a cheese and some other stuff.  I also upped my water consumption.  Hard to tell what caused it.  The thing to remember when your weight flat lines is that even though its not going down it isn’t going up either.

I do not anticipate this level of weight loss in month two.  My trailing one week daily weight loss average is about 0.37 lbs per day.   Thats 11.1 lbs a month.  I’m setting a slightly more conservative goal of 10 lbs over the next four weeks.  So in another month I hope to be at 193.8 lbs.

The graph’s linear trend line has stabilized.  It looks like I’ll be done mid march at this rate.  My goal still remains mid April 2019.

The Overvalued Stock Market

The Economy is “booming” and Trump is busy tweeting victory laps but watch out the stock market is noticeably over valued.   This is simple math.   Price to Earnings ratios are “out the roof”.   The current P/E ratios for the major indexes are available from the Wall Street Journal.   The SP500 P/E is currently 24.40.   Historic data is available from many sources, I used Multpl.com.  The median SP500 P/E is 14.73 over the last 100+ years.

P = Price per share, E = Earnings per Share and P/E is the ratio of Price over Earnings.

Using x for the P/E ratio we get  : x = P/E.  Assuming an arbitrary and hypothetical stock price of $100.00 per share and a P/E of 24.40 would result in an earnings per share of :

x = P/E so E = P/x so plugging in figures E = 100 / 24.40 = 4.10 = E

So our hypothetical stock priced at $100 per share has an earnings per share of $4.10.  Now what happens if we keep Earnings Per Share constant and adjust market to historical market expectations of a P/E of 14.73 ?

x = P/E so xE = P and plugging in the figures P = 14.73 * 4.10 = 60.39 = P

So if the market expectations correct to normal P/E values this hypothetical stock ( and the stock market ) will drop by 39.61%.   That is a price drop from 100 to 60.39 is a 39.61% drop.

We have had several drops of this magnitude, and two greater, in the history of the markets.  The corrections of ’61, ’68, ’80, and ’87 were comparable.   The corrections of ’29 and ’07 were substantial more severe.

Does the above mean the market will crash ?  Not necessarily.  There are three basic ways out of this, over time.  First as illustrated above expectations return to normal and the price adjusts accordingly.   Second earnings increase over time and expectations normalize over time making for far less drastic impacts over a longer period.  Third inflation returns with a vengeance and the stock price never goes down in absolute dollars, earnings appear to climb due to inflation and price appears to climb as well but in current dollars a stealth correction happens.  Likely a combination of all three of these will happen.

Atkins : Week 2 Results : -8.2 lbs : Yay!

Atkins20_20180930_Week2

Here are the numbers.   After 14 days I’m down 8.2 lbs and heading into week three.   I had a good week if you look at total weight loss.  It was however discouraging compared to first week in that I had a few flat days with no loss and even one with gain.  That is to be expected though.  Just soldier on and victory will come.

I’ve been using recipes from the Atkins website for Phase 1 ( Induction ).  They are so good that I have had no problems staying on the diet.  My goal is to stay in the induction phase for 8 weeks and see if I can keep the rate of weight loss in this aggressive stage.  What I have read says you can stay in induction longer with good results.

I reused most of the dishes from last week but added the Burrito Beef recipe.   It was good but I found the beef a little dry for my preference.  I returned the shredded beef to the crock.  Then I took the balance of the can of green enchilada sauce, along with a full can of water, added 2x the dry ingredients, a chopped jalapeno, and some garlic powder.  I added all of this back into the crock and cooked for another couple hours.  I ate this as a bowl, adding some lettuce, a bit of tomato, onions, cilantro, sprinkle of cheese, sour cream, and Pain Is Good Jalapeno Pepper Sauce.

The graph’s linear trend line has moved farther out.  This is starting to look more realistic.  My goal remains mid April 2019 and currently the trend has me completing mid February.   I suspect the trend line will moderate even more.

Atkins : Week 1 Results : -5.4 lbs : Yay!

Atkins20_20180923_Week1

Here are the numbers.   After 7 days I’m down 5.4 lbs and heading into week two.   I am very pleased with these results.

I’ve been using recipes from the Atkins website for Phase 1 ( Induction ).  They are so good that I have had no problems staying on the diet.  My goal is to stay in the induction phase for 8 weeks and see if I can keep the rate of weight loss in this aggressive stage.  What I have read says you can stay in induction longer with good results.

Some of the dishes I have eaten this week are :

Beef Burgers with Feta and Tomato

Jamacian Jerked Beef Steak

Buffalo Chicken Wings ( I used full sized wings and next time I will do drumsticks )

A couple batches of chicken breasts which I put melted garlic butter on.  Very good.

Vegetables were bell peppers, salads, and broccoli.

Breakfasts were eggs or sausage etc.

The graph has a linear trend line which is likely not realistic.  There will be plateaus and likely a slowing in the rate of weight loss.  My target for goal weight is mid April 2019.

Lookout Below

Several years ago i followed a variation of the atkins diet. It worked. I lost weight. I started feeling so good I started riding my bicycle to work 7 miles each way. Then the rainy season began and I worried about my work laptop. I stopped riding. Then the office closed and I began working out of my house. The carbs were enticing and now I’m mostly on a carb diet. I’ve gained all the weight back and then some.

In the morning is the start of Atkins Mark II for me. I’d like to lose 70 lbs and drop from 219 to 150lbs. By my math that should take 28 weeks or 7 months. By the time tax day rolls around i hope to be skinnier.

As always reality may not match theory.

Giddyup.

Until

Many Goals
Many Hills
Many Giants
Achieved, Conquered, Fallen

No Mountaintop
No Satisfaction
No Rest On Laurels
Always More Beyond

Running Toward Chalk
Doing What Needs Done
Till I Either Fall
Or Catch The Sun

Until, 1/1/2018